نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال سی‌ام شماره 4 (پیاپی 119، زمستان 1398)

The administrative system, as one of the key development infrastructures, is itself influenced by other subsystems, including the science and technology system; and one of the potentially influential streams on administrative system is "technological convergence" or "convergent technologies".

The present study was designed with the aim of discovering the appropriate response to this fundamental question: "How will be the impact of converging technologies on the future of Iranian ideal administrative system?"

In this qualitative and descriptive research, at first, for designing a model of Iranian ideal administrative system, 10 superiority legal documents were analyzed and codified by grounded theory approach. Subsequently, the views of Iranian experts in convergent technologies about the possible impacts of these technologies on administrative system were collected through interviews and analyzed using social network analysis technique and UCINET software.

Main Dimensions of Iranian Ideal Administrative System were identified in elements such as inputs, infrastructures, resources, processes, outputs and feedback, while the impact of converging technologies on these six dimensions was confirmed with a density of 0.87. The highest value of internal (beeing affected) and external (affecting) Degree Centrality is related to "processes" and "robotics and artificial intelligence" respectively, also "human-machine interafaces" has the highest value of the betweennes centrality indicator.

All six dimensions of Iranian ideal administrative system will be heavily affected by convergent technologies and it is necessary to establish suitable mechanisms (such as education, regulations, credits, etc.) to effectively deal with this future in different parts of the system.

Futurism is one of the most important principles of strategic management and is one  of the most important tasks of managers . Top executives of the organization are relying on this principle, Investigate the various aspects of the future and identify and design horizons of programs and make up-to-date decisions, Provides backgrounds for progress. Considering the special position of prosperity And futuristic activities in Islamic literature and culture, Especially, Sire and method OF Imam Ali's management, In this research, we have tried to deduce and use the teachings of Alavi school, And relying on the descriptive-analytical method and scrolling through the triple steps , Describe, Analysis and explanation, The roles and functions of prospective management are examined in the organization's progress.  Research findings suggest that motivating prospects, Create a relaxed mood, Succeeding in decision making,Reducing planning errors, Solve problems and problems of the organization, Optimal use of facilities and opportunities and increase the effectiveness and efficiency of resources and facilities, Provides background for the organization's progress. Therefore, one can claim that another factor can not be as effective as the prospect of an organization's progress and prosperity. As failure to pay attention to this issue can have adverse consequences for the organization, and if this is a nuisance in the important and decisive affairs of the organization, The consequences of failures and failures and even the collapse of the organization will be unavoidable.

Developing effective methods to reduce the complexity and uncertainties of the future and confronting rapid and discrete changes is a necessity in the present age. foresight are considered as an effective tool to reduce the complexity of complex and dynamic systems. Defeating the business environment can be very dangerous for organizations, prospecting provides a structured opportunity to look at the future. Therefore, due to the diversity and variety of issues related to futurism, organizations and researchers have conducted numerous research in this field.

Considering the large volume of researches as a challenge for identifying research trends and emerging areas, in this research, using scientific methods, the research process of researchers in the field of foresight analysis And analyzed.

In this research 3883 articles published between 1979 and June 2019 in the field of foresight in the WOS database were analyzed using VOSviewer software. The article's network of referrals, both the occurrence of keywords, the co-authorship of the authors And references to magazines analyzed and identified by leading authors, journals and fields of research.

According to the results, futures, technological forecasting and social change, journal of political economy, were recognized as the most influential magazines in the field of futures studies. Also, Suddendorf, T, Saritas, O, Sarpong, D, and Rohrbeck, r were recognized as authors with the highest share in science production. Among the keywords used in all reviewed articles, the words decision-making, corporate foresight, climate-change have been the highest rank among repetitions between articles in the field of foresight. And economics, regional urban planning, business, as the research area with the highest number of papers.

This research aims to design a brand reputation development model based on corporate social responsibility with future study approach in the Iranian banking industry. The research method is a two-stage approach. In the first stage, the factors of brand reputation development and corporate social responsibility were identified by using meta-analysis method. The statistical population in this stage was English and Persian scientific articles published in scientific journals during 2005 to 2018 in the field of brand reputation and corporate social responsibility in the world and the sources of their collection were the scientific databases available through the University of Tehran. At this point, 41 refined articles were finally reviewed. The research method in the second stage is survey type, in terms of correlation method and from the objective perspective, it is an applied research. The research timeframe is from January 2018 to August 2019. The statistical population in the second stage includes Iranian banking industry customers. Library and field method were used for data collection. Interviews and a questionnaire with five-point Likert scale were used for data collection. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by formal content and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha method. The sampling method in this stage was cluster random sampling and the statistical sample size obtained 387. After formulating the initial model, frequency distribution, central indices and dispersion distribution were used to describe variables. Independent t-test, analysis of variance, confirmatory factor analysis, Pearson, and stepwise multiple regression were used for inferential testing of hypotheses. The results show that corporate social responsibility with future study approach and its dimensions including economic responsibility, legal responsibility, ethical responsibility, and charitable responsibility influence brand reputation development and its dimensions including customer-centric, organizational culture, brand awareness, brand prominence, brand performance, brand image and brand credibility, but the variables of environmental responsibility and the spirit of sacrifice do not have a significant impact on it.

recently, more notable performance is expected from knowledge-based companies. Some intra-organizational factors (such as innovation strategies) and also a number of extra-organizational factors (such as competitiveness and environmental dynamics) can play significant roles in their performance.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the connection of dynamics variables and environmental competitiveness with the variables of product innovation strategy and process innovation. Another objective of this article is to investigate the impact of these factors on business performance.

This research is an applied and descriptive correlational study. The statistical population includes 170 managers of knowledge-based companies of Khorasan Razavi province out of which 115 were randomly selected. The data collection tool was a questionnaire which its validity and reliability was confirmed. Causal relationships between variables were measured using PLS software.

The results indicate that environmental competitiveness affects both process and product innovation. It also affects business performance through innovation. Also, the Environmental dynamics affect product and process innovation and through them affect business performance.

Knowledge-based companies should investigate the environmental conditions and formulate innovative strategies based on its competitiveness and dynamics to achieve optimal performance.

Implementing organizing activities with foresightfulness decisions is critical for competitive success due to uncertainty in environment of sport organizations. So strategic foresight has been developed in order to create and achieve sustained competitive advantage. Applying and implementing strategic foresight by middle managers is important because of their responsibilities and authorization in managing, controlling and organizing of the organizations. This article aim is to identify factors influence on dissipation of strategic foresight implementation based on changes in organizing processes. In other word, considering organizing processes role in implementation of strategic foresight, this research investigates the effects of organizing processes and its related associated routines on strategic foresight implementation. Therefore, factors that have influence on successful or unsuccessful implementation of strategic foresight in sport organizations, should be identified. The article aim is to identify influence of organizing processes and their associated routines (rhetoric of legitimation, Instrumental rationality, suppression of creative freedom, and the formulation of solutions in search of problems) on successful strategic foresight implementation with using partial least square (PLS) software.

With the increasing development of the Internet and electronic commerce and their expansion among the people all over of the world, the way of providing bank services for the costumers has been also changed and influenced by the Internet and electronic commerce. Nowadays, physical interactions (face to face) between the customer and the bank staff are so decreased and it is replaced with virtual communications between the customers and the banks. Therefore, traditional banking (referring to the branch and doing all the transactions in person) has been changed to technology-oriented banking.

This research is aimed at identifying a comprehensive pattern for acceptance of electronic banking in Bank Maskan in Iran.

According to the systematic pattern of grounded  theory, information technology managers  of  Bank  Maskan  in  20  provinces,  as  experts,  were  participated  in  a  deep  qualitative interview. After encoding the interviews in 3 stages, a model was identified  for accepting electronic banking of Bank Maskan.

The results showed that 8 factors are effective as factors influencing the acceptance of electronic banking.

.The factors such as: cost saving, perceived conveniences, customers’ needs management, perceived trust, perceived confidence, perceived performance quality, perceived technical complexity, and perceived value.have impact on the acceptance of electronic banking.

The banking industry as one of the most important economic sectors of the country has always been influenced by many factors And that's the thought of the experts and the economists To realize the future of the swing instability has prevented it in the face of changes ahead and Provide growth and development for this sector.

The purpose of this study is to formulate scenarios of the banking industry with a future research approach.

This goal-based research is an applied research that has used qualitative methods to collect data. Data collection tools are questionnaires, interviews, check-ins, and statistical and information networks. In this study, the statistical population of banking managers and specialists and university professors are familiar with the field of banking, which, based on the type of information required to conduct the research, non-probable judgmental sampling was used. The methodology of this research is based on future research scenario writing.

After formulating the initial question and identifying the main topic, forming the panel of experts, conducting exploratory interviews and identifying the driving forces, 64 variables were identified as the primary influencing factors of the banking industry by a 64*64 matrix and then provided with the help of Mic Mac Software , 12 key factors were extracted and categorized into 38 different situations. These situations were then presented to the experts for all key factors in a 38*38 matrix and analyzed in the Scenario Wizard software and four scenarios were extracted.

Finally, 3 strong scenarios, 1 believable scenario and 8 weak ones were identified and classified into three groups: desirable, static and crisis and presented strategies for developing the banking industry.

Nowadays, given the rapid changes in customers' desires and demands, forward thinking in the area of ​​predicting future consumer purchases in the field of high-mental involvement can be considered.

This paper identifies and prioritizes the components of the future purchase intention of high-mental involvement products by identifying the factors, dimensions, components and indicators that affect this area.

Based on the theoretical framework of this research, in this research, the fuzzy Delphi Logic was used to find expert opinions on a benchmark. Closed questions (Likert) were used to design and compile questionnaire indices. In this regard, Delphi method was used for designing a questionnaire in the first round and by identifying indicators and components by reviewing the literature and interviewing the experts.

In this step, the research uses a literature study to extract the components and indicators that were intended to buy upcoming products with a high degree of mental convergence in LG brand products. Finally, 18 components and 75 indicators were identified.

In this research, based on experts' opinions and fuzzy Delphi analysis, feedback indicators from the people of the world and attention to product changes and changes from the social component with the highest degree of DI-phase, the most important indicators of research and the index of environmental groups from the component of norms Subjective with the lowest degree of DI-phase is considered the least important indicator.

The banking industry has a special role in the dynamics of the economy. Given the challenges and uncertainties in the business environment, the use of imagery to improve management in this sector has been prominent. Therefore, the industry, utilizing the future research, always needs to change its systems and processes to achieve a higher level of confidence. The present study aims to identify the dimensions and organizational components affecting high reliability banks as the face of future organizations in the industry. Banking has been done The statistical population of this research was banking and academic experts familiar with organizational issues and banking industry management in order to identify these factors influencing the fuzzy Delphi method and ultimately, the identified factors were weighed and prioritized through the network analysis process based on the fuzzy DMF method. The results showed that the factors of "rapid reaction to banking standards" on "compliance", "operational sensitivity", "failure concern", "resilience" and "perceived risk", respectively, were in a reliable bank High are effective. The "perceived risk" factor and the "timely response to customers" factors were identified as the top priority in a high reliability bank.

One of the basic issues in a country's higher education system is the foundations of the quality of graduates’ and university students’ performance, which make up two of the seven major issues in the field of quality in higher education and is important in incorporating multiple components in improving the quality of the higher education system of each country, and any ambiguity in it, especially in military higher education, which has a higher sensitivity, will lead to irreparable consequences.

The main objective of this paper is to forecast the performance of military higher education students using the artificial neural network prediction algorithm. In addition, the main components of student performance quality have been studied.

In this paper, using predictive artificial neural network prediction algorithm, forecasting the quality of students' performance in three phases of learning, validation and neural network test was performed. The statistical society consists of faculty members of Shahid Sattari Air University, students and graduates of this university, as well as the members of the Office of Strategic Studies and Theoretical Research, were then interviewed using a semi-structured interview and a researcher-made questionnaire. Finally, MATLAB software was used to model the neural network.

Using artificial neural network algorithm, a model with accuracy of 85.5% was designed and tested.

By using artificial neural network algorithm and modeling the quality of students' performance, we can accurately predict the quality of the graduates' performance in the Air Force organization.

By expanding the use of computers in various aspects of people's lives, a huge amount of data is generated. Mostly this data contains valuable information. Data mining can enable us to extract required information and benefit from them. Data mining enables us to identify hidden patterns in data sets and use them for prediction. One of the areas that is faced with the massive production of data is the area of treatment. This study will focus in particular on orthopedics. This research is looking for using technology and data mining techniques from existing data in hospital's database to reach valuable information and predict possibility of breaks which   require orthopedics surgery. This may support doctors to make their decisions easier, faster and more accurately in serving patients.  This research is conducted by using the CRISP methodology. The result of this research shows that the combination of the CHAID algorithm and the Boosting cumulative amplified neural network can provide the desired accuracy in prediction of the need for orthopedics surgery.

The aim of  this research is Identification of the effective factors on bankruptcy prediction of Iranian companies by findings of artificial neural network (ANN) system based on Multilayer Perceptron Approach (PS) , and providing an appropriate statistical model for estimating the bankruptcy of Iranian companies by using the findings of The ANN implementation. we seek to answer the following question: Are we able to design a valid statistical model by using findings of artificial neural network (ANN) system to predict the bankruptcy of Iranian companies? The statistical population in this study is all of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. By considering the criteria and method of systematic deletion, 172 companies from this statistical society have been selected as the sample in this research from 1386 to 1395. In order to make statistical analyzes in this study, we used from  methods  such as artificial neural network system based on multilevel perceptron approach, binary logistic regression, and tests such as Akaic, Schwarz, Hanan Quinn and Z wang test. The results of the analysis of the research data show that the ANN system can identify of the factors affecting on  bankruptcy of Iranian companies in the year before bankruptcy by Precision equal 98%.

The main objective of this study is to investigate talent management complications among university lecturers and design optimal models. The research method is descriptive-survey method. The statistical population of this study was the teachers of Tehran Azad University with units of 360 people selected by Cochran sampling method. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire. After confirming its content validity, its reliability was calculated using Cronbach's alpha of 92%. The data analysis method was performed using exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling technique (SEM) using LISREL statistical software. The results of the research show that based on the evaluation of indicators and talent management components that are based on the three-component complication model in the structural, contextual and content dimensions, between the optimum situation and the current status of talent management gap, which at the end of the research is based on the results obtained Optimal strategies for improving talent management in the components of employment conditions, human capital position, scientific infrastructure, electronic and technological infrastructure, legal and legal framework, cultural conditions, acceptance and support of managers, acceptance and support of instructors by the final model resulting from the results.

The main objective of this research is to investigate the effect of future welfare facilities for organizational agility. The research is based on the applied purpose and is descriptive and exploratory based on the data collection method. The statistical population of the study consisted of experts and experts of Islamic Azad universities in Khuzestan province. Using purposeful sampling, 25 people who have knowledge and expertise in the subject of research were selected to form the expert panel. After extracting the factors from the research background, using the semi-structured interview and the open questionnaire, expert opinions were drawn and the original model was designed. In the next step, each of the main factors and their type was subjected to expert judgment through another questionnaire, in interaction with other components. This questionnaire was designed to extract relationships between variables and determine the weight coefficients of indicators and determine the type and position of factors in relation to other components. Finally, data analysis was performed using the system dynamics method and through the scenario in Vensim software. The results showed that improvement of housing facilities is an attractive research scenario, which in addition to organizing the organization, also improves the quality of working life. Improvement of cultural and sport facilities was also identified as a desirable research scenario. Also, the results showed that the granting of grant facilities does not have much impact on organizational agility.